Recently by Sarah Blackwill
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carrie Dann
Obama At 264: A week after Obama's poll numbers spiked in battleground states and after McCain's campaign announced it was retreating from Michigan, Obama has opened up a nearly 100-point electoral-vote lead, according to NBC's new map. Obama now has a 264-174 advantage over McCain, up from his 212-174 edge last week. The changes are all in Obama's direction: We've moved Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin from Toss-up to Lean Obama. Also, every single Toss-up state is now a red state, and we are close to moving another red state -- Missouri -- to the Toss-up column. But let's remember: This is where the RACE IS RIGHT NOW, not where we expect the race to be in a month. And we move a state into lean when we believe there's significant evidence based on our reporting and a few of the public polls (we trust) that a candidate has a lead of five points or more.
*** The Path To Winning: To reach 270, Obama has to hold on to the Kerry map -- winning New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin -- and pick up just one more state other than Nevada (which would get him to 269 and send the election to the House). Here's McCain's challenge, per our map: If he's unable to turn a blue state red, then he has to win EVERY SINGLE Toss-up to get to 270. It's doable, but it's also the poker equivalent of drawing an inside straight. Also, not only does McCain share Vietnam veteran status with the last two Democratic nominees for president (Gore and Kerry); he also shares the need for a similar Electoral College strategy. At this point in the campaign in both 2000 and 2004, Gore and Kerry seemed to have limited room to maneuver in the states. Gore pulled out of Ohio (about this time) to focus on Florida, and Kerry pulled out of Missouri to focus on Ohio. McCain's pullout of Michigan has the same feel to it -- meaning it's not a bad strategy given the circumstances. The fact is, like Gore and Kerry, McCain's got a narrow path to 270, which explains why Sarah Palin was in Omaha yesterday and why there is more money being thrown into Maine. McCain's campaign is not playing for a big win, just any win. And while both Kerry and Gore did end up losing, it was VERY close. When the environment is against you, it's not a bad strategy.
*** Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania: If there is one blue state the McCain campaign may never give up on, it's the Keystone State. Of all the Kerry blue states, it's the most competitive -- even right now at a time that appears to be Obama's high-water mark. Of the remaining blue states in play, Pennsylvania may be the most culturally sensitive and may explain why the McCain folks want to shift the debate a bit to character (see below). Shifting the campaign to character isn't about changing the national narrative; it's about keeping the undecided column larger in Pennsylvania. Now, the character strategy could backfire in a Florida or even a Nevada or Colorado. But Pennsylvania, by the numbers, is worth it to McCain. Speaking of state-by-state strategies, anyone remember the last time Obama was in Ohio?
Check out more of the day's political reporting on First Read.
And see NBC political director Chuck Todd's take on the electoral map below.
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The House of Representatives rejected a $700 billion financial bailout plan today by a vote of 228-205. 140 Democrats voted for the bill and 95 against it. 65 Republicans supported the bill and 199 voted against it.
Earlier...
From NBC's Mike Viqueira and Carrie Dann
The situation on the Hill remains incredibly fluid, with administration officials and GOP leaders pounding the marble floors of the Capitol to shore up support for the bailout legislation. Republican House leaders, despite their own distaste for the bill, are whipping their members in the effort to get the votes needed to pass it as the clock ticks. And there's there's an added sense of urgency: With the Jewish holidays fast approaching, practicing members from the West Coast need to be back on home turf by sundown.
The best estimates right now indicate that Republicans will garner about 70 votes in support of the bailout, less than half of the 199 GOPers in the House. Congressional Democrats are more optimistic, predicting that a majority of their 235 members will eventually climb aboard.
From some skeptics, scatological references abound. Minority Leader John Boehner, despite asking members to hold their noses and sit down at the bailout table with him, told colleagues that the bill is a "crap sandwich." Rep. Paul Broun (R-GA) rose on the floor to compare the bill to " a huge cow patty with a marshmallow stuck in the middle of it."
But more serious rhetoric remains plentiful as well. For a sense of how Congressional leaders are viewing the history attached to the vote they'll cast within hours, look no further than retiring 12-year House veteran Rep. Chip Pickering of Mississippi, who calls the bailout bill a "legacy" vote on par with members' decisions on the authorization of the Iraq war and on President Bill Clinton's impeachment. And Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN) said that passing the bill would lead to a "Leviathan state," concluding soberly that, "Duty is ours. Outcomes belong to God." Stay tuned... the clock continues to tick and the gavel falls in less than two hours.
Check out more of the day's political reporting on First Read.
Sitting down to watch the dozens of primary debates was like waiting with the bartender at a neighborhood dive for a brawl that might happen, knowing that a few of the regulars were likely to come in with a beef, one could fly off the handle at any minute, the bartender was probably going to goad him into it, and that the drama of the night would be exciting and unexpected, and somebody could end up with a black eye. Knowing that 8 of the 9 or so guys (and gal) under the lights would definitely not be president put the focus on the human drama, the hook and block, the language and argument and personality on stage.
Last night was not a night for popcorn, or peanuts, and wasn't especially about entertainment. Gone were the "gotcha" questions and invitations for political gamesmanship. Instead, there were three serious, well-prepared men in dark suits and a mostly silent, invisible live audience. Facts and statistics, bills and budgets replaced retorts as ammunition. The message: this is a serious debate about a serious decision for a serious time.
In a campaign where both sides have railed against Washington, the language of the city was the currency of the night. Committees and subcommittees, tax rates and earmarks, amendments and continuing resolutions. Both candidates were impressive in their mastery of the facts (even those that they may have intentionally distorted), but one was left wondering if undecided voters felt either man fully connect to their problems and values and dreams.
Both men were armed against their Nixon moment with blush and foundation, which wasn't particularly flattering in HD. Barack Obama wore a flag pin; John McCain did not. Neither man was relaxed but both were presidential, largely self-assured and in control of their arguments.
Neither candidate got in a narrative-confirming dig about the other man's character. There was no "You're no Jack Kennedy" or "There you go again" moment.
Both candidates have been changed by the long campaign. Obama and McCain argued over earmarks last night, but not over whether they're bad and should be eliminated, just about how bad they are. Obama stopped requesting them in 2008. "Main Street" rolled off McCain's tongue like the populist he has become or is or is trying to appear to be.
The candidates don't like each other very much. The disdain from each was palpable. Barack Obama referred to McCain as "John" 25 times, implying familiarity, but his smiles under McCain's accusations were tight. McCain did not call Obama by his first name once, addressed Lehrer for most of the evening, and hardly acknowledged that he had a debate partner.
Each candidate clearly thought he was the smartest guy in the room. Obama tried to win by starting his sentences with conciliatory language, before inserting a correction. He spent much of the night agreeing with McCain- "Senator McCain and I agree for the most part on these issues," "Senator McCain and I, I think agree on the importance of energy," "John is right we have to make cuts"- but his best moments came when he attacked directly.
McCain condescended, implying that all the candidates' disagreements could be cleared up if Obama just had a little more knowledge of the issues. "Senator Obama doesn't understand the difference between a tactic and a strategy," he said. "Senator Obama calls for more troops, but what he doesn't understand, it's got to be a new strategy," "I don't think that Senator Obama understands that there was a failed state in Pakistan..."
As expected, the economy dominated the first 40 minutes of debate, and John McCain won here because Obama didn't shift the focus of debate from earmarks and taxes (McCain's turf) to health care, food prices and the cost of the Iraq war (his own.)
Otherwise, the night was a draw, with both candidates articulating their quite different approaches to governing and the issues. McCain's press didn't take a nosedive, as it could have after the confused week if he had not performed well. Obama more than met any questions about whether he could look presidential next to McCain, with foreign policy as the subject.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
OXFORD, Miss. -- The atmosphere on the Ole Miss campus is one of enthusiasm -- and a bit of anxiety -- for a debate a state has hoped and planned for for a year and a half, since the school applied to have it.
Republican Gov. Haley Barbour today called for the debate to go on. The state newspaper was filled with editorials and op-eds urging McCain to show up.
The Republican nominee may have thrown a wrench into the plans, but in the debate hall here, workers are drilling the final screws into the debate set; lights are being checked; podiums are being measured; the last of the set's panels are being put up and wires being weaved. Outside, security checkpoints are in place, network TV camera stands are built and set. (And never mind those hotel reservations and flight plans.)
"The debate will go on," University of Mississippi Vice Chancellor Gloria Kellum told NBC's local affiliate, adding, "We've spent two years working on this."
Advance teams from both campaigns have completed walk throughs, the local affiliate reported citing university officials, adding that if McCain doesn't show, there will be a 90-minute town hall with Obama taking questions from the audience.
In this proud town, on this university campus, residents, students and school officials want the debate to go on. And everything's in place.
McCain, tonight, told NBC's Brian Williams on Nightly News he is "hopeful" he will be at the debate.
An entire town and state sure hopes so.
Check out more of the day's political reporting on First Read.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carrie Dann
Who knew that in the week preceding the first presidential debate -- on the subject of foreign policy! -- that Congress would be dominating and driving the political debate. Obviously, the bailout politics are tricky. The leadership of both parties in Congress seems ready to sign off on the Paulson/Bernanke bailout plan, but the rank-and-file want to extract something from the Administration and Wall Street. Moreover, congressional Democrats fear being the party of the bailout. (If 100-plus House Republicans come out against the bailout, does that make it harder for the Dem leadership to keep their troops in line?) Is there going to be a magic number Nancy Pelosi tells John Boehner and the White House that the GOP needs to get this done by the weekend? And what about the presidential candidates? How much power does McCain have in this? If he comes out against the bailout, he probably can kill it or radically alter it. But then the Republicans own the alternative, right? What a mess. Meanwhile, without fanfare, congressional Dems are allowing the oil-drilling moratorium to expire. Cave, baby, cave. Rural Democrats in tough House races are breathing a sigh of relief this morning.
Check out more of the day's political reporting on First Read.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carrie Dann Sunshine on Obama's shoulders: If you want to know why Obama is doing his debate prep today in -- of all places -- Tampa, FL, look no further than the latest TODAY Show/NBC/Mason-Dixon poll, which has Obama up in the Sunshine State by two points, 47%-45%. Yet inside those numbers, Obama leads McCain in the Tampa Bay area (Hillsborough, Pinellas, Pasco, Hernando, and Polk counties) by a 49%-43% margin. Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker says the key to winning Florida statewide is usually through Tampa Bay, and Obama's six-point lead in the area explains why he's ahead in this poll. Moreover, outside of Nevada, there is probably not another state that has been hurt more by the housing and credit crunch, and that may be benefiting Obama right now. Also potentially troublesome for McCain in this must-win GOP state, he leads by just six among Hispanics (49%-43%), which in Florida is made up of a majority of Cubans. (If Obama does pick off younger Cubans, he may close the overall gap thanks to his large lead among non-Cuban Hispanics in the I-4 corridor.) Also, McCain's four-point lead among seniors (48%-44%) is not as big as he needs it to be to offset the electorate-changing demographics among blacks and young voters. So Obama's decision to prep for Friday's debate in Florida is turning into a smart play, huh? Any extra day in Florida might pay off...
Check out more of the day's political reporting on First Read.
NBC's Mike Viqueira blogged on the automakers' stop on the Hill today. (see below)
Congressional debate over government
intervention on behalf of the auto industry is nothing new. Watch for a familiar
face in the video below...circa 1979.
In 1979, a Secret Service motorcade looked like this:
The question is: will support for the loans from the presidential candidates, deadlocked in manufacturing states like Michigan and Ohio, result in funding for the bill? Or will economic unease in the rest of the country, compounded by the bailouts Mike mentions, kill the resolution?
From NBC's Mike Viqueira
The big wheels of American auto-making are coming up to your U.S. Capitol this afternoon for a visit with Congressional leaders. Subject: The $25 billion in loans coming to them for the purpose of "re-equipping" the domestic fleet to make it more fuel-efficient.
House minority leader John Boehner said last week the $25 billion in federal loans in the offing for Detroit automakers "looks like a bailout to me." He added that he still hasn't seen all the details.
At issue is a piece of legislation being considering in Congress that would make the money available to Ford, GM, and Chrysler to help them develop and market more fuel efficient vehicles. The automakers are asking for the loans in accordance with a law passed last year by Congress that raised CAFE standards. But many lawmakers, including notable conservatives like Boehner, are wary.
As often happens around here, the skirmishing is partly over nomenclature and political definitions: Is the $25 billion a "loan" or a "bailout"?
The automakers and their Hill allies say the former. Opponents say the latter, and express misgivings about the recent trend towards government intervention exhibited by the Bush Administration, most recently with Lehman, but also with Bear Stearns, as well as Freddie and Fannie.
Seeing as how the measure is popular in Rust Belt battleground states like Michigan, the bill has a wind at its back this election year. It would most likely be included in year-end must pass legislation, like the resolution to keep the government funded until after the elections.
Check out more of the day's political reporting on First Read.
Check out Luke's extended interviews with the candidates. He talked with John McCain and Barack Obama about encouraging national service, and the legacy of 9/11.
Barack Obama and John McCain released dueling ads on education, and they are some of the toughest out there.
Obama attacks McCain for proposing to do away with the Department of Education, not mentioning that this was in 1994. McCain slams Obama for supporting sex ed for kindergartners, neglecting to say that this was part of a plan to protect children from sexual predators.
Ending "partisan rancor"? Embracing the "politics of hope"? Check them out and see what you think.
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