"It grew strength from the young people who rejected the myth of their generation's apathy; who left their homes and their families for jobs that offered little pay and less sleep." -- President-elect Obama on the role of young people in his campaign, 11/4/08
Every place I went covering this election, I was asked the same question. Will young people show up to the polls this time around? I always said, I believe so, the trajectory of the numbers suggests they will and if they don't show up for this election, they never will. Well, my fellow Millennials didn't just show up in 2008, they showed up in a big way.
Overall, young people made up 18% of this year's electorate, according to exit poll data from the National Election Pool, conducted by Edison/Mitofsky for a consortium of news organizations. Although that only represents a 1% increase from 2004, that 1% increase accounts for 2.2 million new young voters. But that is not the important part of the youth vote story. The numbers tell me three important things. In swing states, the youth turnout greatly helped Barack Obama beat John McCain. Latino youth went for Obama 76%-19%, showing that Democrats have firmly entrenched themselves with the nation's fastest-growing voting bloc. And Obama's margin of victory in the 18-29 demographic was astronomical (66%-32%), and suggests that the Millennial generation is convinced by the policies and direction of the Democratic Party.
The results also confirm a long-standing hypothesis: in states where both campaigns were extremely active and directly targeted young voters, young people went to the polls at a higher rate than their "decided state" counterparts.
In 2004, 64% of young people in swing states turned out, as opposed to 49% nationally. Where did the youth vote make a difference this time around? In the hotly-contested battleground states: in Virginia, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Ohio and Indiana. In Virginia, young people made up 21% of the electorate, as opposed to the 17% they made up in 2004. Young voters broke for Obama 60%-39%. In a state where he won by only 198,769 votes, the youth vote played a pivotal role.
In Pennsylvania, young people made up 18% of the electorate, where they were 13% in 2004. That is an increase of 236,000 new youth voters. Young people in Pennsylvania broke for Obama 65%-35%, which contributed to the Senator's win early in the evening.
In North Carolina, young voters went to Obama 74%-26%, that's a 48% difference! Obama won the state by 14,095 votes. It's safe to say young voters delivered the Tar Heel State.
In Ohio, 61% of the youth vote went to Obama and 36% to McCain. Obama won the state by 200,000 votes. Had he not over performed in the youngest demographic, he would have been in for a squeaker.
Lastly, let's take a look at the state where I was stationed on Election Night, the Hoosier State: Indiana. Before two nights ago, Indiana had not voted for a Democrat for president since 1964. In 2000, the state was among the first called for President Bush and in 2004 Bush beat John Kerry there by 21 points. Indiana was for many years a reliable bastion of conservatism. So how did it turn blue? Quick answer: the youth vote. Young people favored Obama in Indiana 63%-35%. Obama won by a measly 25,836 votes. So throw Indiana in with North Carolina as a former red state that went blue on account of the youth vote.
Simply by being the fastest-growing segment of the American population, Latinos also have become the fastest-growing voting bloc. In the 2008 election they made up 9% of the electorate and that number will surely continue to grow in the coming years. Nationally, according to the Pew Research Center, Latino voters now favor Democrats 65%-26% over the GOP, a 39% gap. That is shocking because in 2006, according to Pew, the gap was only 21 points. As a group, Latino youth voted for Obama 76%-19%, a whopping 57% difference. Why is that important? Well, research has shown that people who vote for a particular party when they are young continue to vote for that same party as they grow older. These numbers mean that Democrats could conceivably have a lock on the Latino vote in the future. This will permanently redraw the electoral map, meaning that it will be increasingly difficult for Republicans to hold onto states like Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and Florida, which have large and growing Latino populations.
My radio partner James Carville said in an article in the Financial Times: "Elections come and go and usually they are without deep or abiding consequence for either party. That is politics. But occasionally there is the election, like this one, that makes a resounding, lasting impact on the US political landscape. The Republican Party, now at an all-time low in popularity, has lost a generation of voters. In 2008, a new Democratic majority has emerged with young voters at the helm. It is a majority that will continue for 40 more years."
Now, I'll be the first to call out Carville when he makes absurd statements (See 60/20 Sports on XM/Sirius: the 'Brett Favre is under more pressure to perform than Aaron Rodgers" episode), yet I think in this case he makes a valid point. Young voters broke for Democrats pretty handily. They delivered two traditionally red states in North Carolina and Indiana and helped secure comfortable victories in Florida, Ohio, Virginia, New Mexico and Nevada. If the Millennial generation continues to vote as they did this time, the electoral map as we know it has changed for good. This also reflects what I have seen on the ground. Young people on both sides of the political aisle told me that they have hated the partisan politics of the past 8 years. They want compromise and they want a better life, not only for themselves but also for the country as a whole. They reject the culture wars of the 60's and believe in an America where it's not that weird to see blacks, Latinos, women, gays and lesbians in prominent leadership positions. That said, it is important to remember that while Millennials may lean Democrat in their political philosophy, they might not always show up to vote. If President-elect Obama, Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid decide to make the next four years as partisan as the 2002-2006 GOP years, I personally believe young voters will feel disenchanted again and not show up as they did in 2008.
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Luke Russert
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Luke,
Thanks for your research and insight into the Millenial vote. Care to do some research into how my generation (Gen X) contributed to the vote? I suspect that similar trends will be seen, but would love to know for sure.
Thanks!
You were accurate in your prediction that the youth vote would show up in a big way. Unfortunately, it didn't end in the result I hoped for, but I pray that our new President will lead our nation with dignity, humbleness, and vision.
It's been great reading your blogs over the past few months and you've been a welcome voice this election season. You are informed and wise beyond your years (you know more about my era than I do!) best of luck.
Hey Luke! As a 25 year old, I am always frustrated by my friends who love to talk politics and complain about the current government, but never vote. But like you, I really thought it would be different this year. People have been engaged and involved like never before, volunteering their time to knock on doors and make phone calls, and even donating money. We as young people have taken ownership of this campaign, and I am not surprised that the youth vote turned out big. But I am excited! Way to go 18-29 year-olds!
Luke,
Your Father is PROUD!!
Blessings,
Luke,
I read your blog and was impressed how much the youth were interested in the election. They made a difference in USA History. Thank you for your wise and candid information.
Meshesha
Outstanding analysis.
I work on a college campus and it was apparent that the traditional college students were going out of their way to learn the issues, register to vote, and learn about the local and state races as well. The passion was at an all time high since I have been in higher education.
Simply, they did their homework no matter how they voted which is promising. It also seemed that the overall voting electorate (I don't know many people of any age who didn't plan to vote in MN)was engaged which probably limited the percentages the youth increases, but this could make a bigger difference in the coming elections.
Keep up the work and keep Carville in line.
Luke
I am a 58yr old female who is soooo proud to be an American and even prouder to see the youth get out the vote the way they did. I have four kids and they all voted ages 25 to 34. I am a Obama supporter but made my children choose for themselves.
It is soo refreshing to see the youth take such a stance. I hope all you know how very proud your parents must be, i sure am
Thanks Luke, and I did enjoy your reporting. On election night I thought of your dad looking down and thinking "what an election" The profound implication of the young vote is that of realignment. If these young voters stick with the Democrat Party, Obama may not only sail to reelection four years from now, but the party as a whole may limit midterm losses and stay in the majority for years to come. A lot depends on how the next four years go. It will take the right wing shock jocks about two days to start blaming Obama for all of Bush's disasterous policies. Think of how Clinton handed the country off in 2000 compared to how Bush is handing it off in 08. It is going to take some time. This was an eight year hike wondering into to wilderness. It's gonna be a couple years of austerity to get out. Great job Luke. You dad is proud of you and so are we.
Great research, Luke. Your Daddy is proud I am sure, my Daddy has a rock emblazoned with "OUR FUTURE IS OUR YOUTH" in a local park here in my hometown. I hope we don't become disenchanted for future campaigns, I firmly believe Barack will keep inspiring us. Jess
Just a note: an article quoting my bro:
http://www.oregonlive.com/business/index.ssf/2008/11/an_eye_on_the_future_auto_indu.html
Bravo!! You are your fathers son! Tim was gravely missed during this historic election, but through you there was a glimmer of him shinning brightly and proudly.
Great coverage! Best of luck in your future endevors! Go Boston!!!
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Excellent research and as a 60 year young , mom and grandmother, I was so excited to engage in political conversations with my sons (35/32/30) and their families and my neighbors of various ages. No matter who they were voting for it was very electrifying to see so many people engaged in conversations about our government. Even my 83 year old mother was very included in the conversations. Her wealth of history illuminated a very interesting light on all our conversations.. Our family really enjoys your blog! smpickering1@aol.com
What an amazing transformation --
First, let me say -- I LOVE TIM RUSSERT. I was so saddened by his death . . . stunned really . . . however will we get through this election ???
Then Andrea Mitchell, Chuck T., Joe S., David G., Barnickle, Wolf B (on another network), Chris M., Keith O. etc. have flooded the airwaves (MSNBC)
And to watch Luke Russert -- he's going to be something special.
I started watching Morning Joe because of the music !! And to see and hear Mike Barnacle because of his relationship with Tim, and what I heard from him in the days following Tim's death.
They have all stepped up to the plate in a huge way. YES, it takes many to fill Tim's shoes . . .
And then last week I saw someone for the first time, didn't recognize him or his name, later learned that he was "Washington Bureau Chief (part of Tim's title). I didn't know they had replaced him . . . no hoopla . . . this guy has quietly (to me at least) picked up part of that role.
And the others-- my oh my -- what a ride this is going to be through November and beyond I hope.
Tim I'm sure is beaming with pride as a proud father. These are his kids, he brought them up, he taught them, and he showed by his great example.
The measure of a man is "how many people did you lift up?" Tim lifted boatloads.
AWESOME !! Thanks Tim !
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sandy.vonlackum@bakerd.com
Good site, and on maintenance and on beauty
Luke, thanks for your insightful coverage of the election. The apple doesn't fall far from the tree and for us, that's a blessing!!!!
I wish you nothing but the best.
The only thing worse than nepotism in politics (George W. Bush) is nepotism in television (Willie Giest, Luke Russert).
Luke you seem like a nice guy, but you can't write, have no particular insight into "youth trends", and your comb over hairdo makes you look like an old man. Stick to sports and radio, dude.
Colin McCormack
colinmccormack1@gmail.com
Luke- Pay no attention to Colin. Any journalist (myself included) or writer would say that you write very well. Personally, I like to follow politics (since 9/11 when I was 17 and starting to realize the importance of electing someone who has honesty and integrity) but most of the people who cover politics on the news are much older than me (I'm 24) so seeing someone like you who's close to my own age brought a new level of interest.
Also, I don't see a comb over. Maybe Colin is bald and forgot what it's like to have hair, but all I see is a part. Oh and on more thing, you're hot!
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kmsivia@gmail.com
The fact that I misspelled "one" in the last sentence of my last post really takes away the effect I was going for but you're still hot!
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This was a very informative article and I thoroughly enjoyed reading it. I was amazed by the youth of our country taking such a lead in this last election campaign, but I am especially proud of them. Our country is going to be just fine as long as our youth and the newly elected president stay focused.
Bet wishes to your in your career. I know that your father would be especially proud of you.
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