November 2008 Archives
"It grew strength from the young people who rejected the myth of their generation's apathy; who left their homes and their families for jobs that offered little pay and less sleep." -- President-elect Obama on the role of young people in his campaign, 11/4/08
Every place I went covering this election, I was asked the same question. Will young people show up to the polls this time around? I always said, I believe so, the trajectory of the numbers suggests they will and if they don't show up for this election, they never will. Well, my fellow Millennials didn't just show up in 2008, they showed up in a big way.
Overall, young people made up 18% of this year's electorate, according to exit poll data from the National Election Pool, conducted by Edison/Mitofsky for a consortium of news organizations. Although that only represents a 1% increase from 2004, that 1% increase accounts for 2.2 million new young voters. But that is not the important part of the youth vote story. The numbers tell me three important things. In swing states, the youth turnout greatly helped Barack Obama beat John McCain. Latino youth went for Obama 76%-19%, showing that Democrats have firmly entrenched themselves with the nation's fastest-growing voting bloc. And Obama's margin of victory in the 18-29 demographic was astronomical (66%-32%), and suggests that the Millennial generation is convinced by the policies and direction of the Democratic Party.
The results also confirm a long-standing hypothesis: in states where both campaigns were extremely active and directly targeted young voters, young people went to the polls at a higher rate than their "decided state" counterparts.
In 2004, 64% of young people in swing states turned out, as opposed to 49% nationally. Where did the youth vote make a difference this time around? In the hotly-contested battleground states: in Virginia, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Ohio and Indiana. In Virginia, young people made up 21% of the electorate, as opposed to the 17% they made up in 2004. Young voters broke for Obama 60%-39%. In a state where he won by only 198,769 votes, the youth vote played a pivotal role.
In Pennsylvania, young people made up 18% of the electorate, where they were 13% in 2004. That is an increase of 236,000 new youth voters. Young people in Pennsylvania broke for Obama 65%-35%, which contributed to the Senator's win early in the evening.
In North Carolina, young voters went to Obama 74%-26%, that's a 48% difference! Obama won the state by 14,095 votes. It's safe to say young voters delivered the Tar Heel State.
In Ohio, 61% of the youth vote went to Obama and 36% to McCain. Obama won the state by 200,000 votes. Had he not over performed in the youngest demographic, he would have been in for a squeaker.
Lastly, let's take a look at the state where I was stationed on Election Night, the Hoosier State: Indiana. Before two nights ago, Indiana had not voted for a Democrat for president since 1964. In 2000, the state was among the first called for President Bush and in 2004 Bush beat John Kerry there by 21 points. Indiana was for many years a reliable bastion of conservatism. So how did it turn blue? Quick answer: the youth vote. Young people favored Obama in Indiana 63%-35%. Obama won by a measly 25,836 votes. So throw Indiana in with North Carolina as a former red state that went blue on account of the youth vote.
Simply by being the fastest-growing segment of the American population, Latinos also have become the fastest-growing voting bloc. In the 2008 election they made up 9% of the electorate and that number will surely continue to grow in the coming years. Nationally, according to the Pew Research Center, Latino voters now favor Democrats 65%-26% over the GOP, a 39% gap. That is shocking because in 2006, according to Pew, the gap was only 21 points. As a group, Latino youth voted for Obama 76%-19%, a whopping 57% difference. Why is that important? Well, research has shown that people who vote for a particular party when they are young continue to vote for that same party as they grow older. These numbers mean that Democrats could conceivably have a lock on the Latino vote in the future. This will permanently redraw the electoral map, meaning that it will be increasingly difficult for Republicans to hold onto states like Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and Florida, which have large and growing Latino populations.
My radio partner James Carville said in an article in the Financial Times: "Elections come and go and usually they are without deep or abiding consequence for either party. That is politics. But occasionally there is the election, like this one, that makes a resounding, lasting impact on the US political landscape. The Republican Party, now at an all-time low in popularity, has lost a generation of voters. In 2008, a new Democratic majority has emerged with young voters at the helm. It is a majority that will continue for 40 more years."
Now, I'll be the first to call out Carville when he makes absurd statements (See 60/20 Sports on XM/Sirius: the 'Brett Favre is under more pressure to perform than Aaron Rodgers" episode), yet I think in this case he makes a valid point. Young voters broke for Democrats pretty handily. They delivered two traditionally red states in North Carolina and Indiana and helped secure comfortable victories in Florida, Ohio, Virginia, New Mexico and Nevada. If the Millennial generation continues to vote as they did this time, the electoral map as we know it has changed for good. This also reflects what I have seen on the ground. Young people on both sides of the political aisle told me that they have hated the partisan politics of the past 8 years. They want compromise and they want a better life, not only for themselves but also for the country as a whole. They reject the culture wars of the 60's and believe in an America where it's not that weird to see blacks, Latinos, women, gays and lesbians in prominent leadership positions. That said, it is important to remember that while Millennials may lean Democrat in their political philosophy, they might not always show up to vote. If President-elect Obama, Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid decide to make the next four years as partisan as the 2002-2006 GOP years, I personally believe young voters will feel disenchanted again and not show up as they did in 2008.
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The two-year journey has come to an end and many young people feel that for the first time in their lives, they're represented by a leader who is one of their own. It's probably not an overstatement to say that the hopes, dreams and aspirations of millions of young people now lie on the shoulders of this 47-year-old senator from Illinois.
My guess is that the first six months of his presidency will be closely watched. Quite frankly, President-elect Obama must deliver or risk alienating the young voters who ultimately propelled him to office by running up big margins in Pennsylvania, Virginia, Ohio and Florida. It has been an historic night.
Now the challenge has begun: an economy in peril, two wars and a broken health care system. It's a challenging agenda -- one that no one would willingly want to inherit. Yet, President-elect Obama will wake up tomorrow morning with those challenges ahead. I think I speak for all Americans in wishing him good luck.
At Indiana University, I spoke to two young African-American female students immediately after Obama's victory. Both said they never thought this day would come in their lifetime. But they reminded me that this wasn't about race, but about the American people who -- in their eyes and the eyes of the world -- have changed for the better. I spoke to many young Obama workers who had sacrificed hours of their time for their movement and their belief in country seems to have been validated tonight.
At 11 p.m., when President-elect Obama was declared the winner, jubilant shouts echoed across the grounds of Indiana University. Our cameraman Greg said that it was as if the Hoosiers had won another national title in basketball. And that my friends, is LOUD! Different emotions filled the room -- tears, relief, and sadness amongst McCain supporters. I had a die-hard Democrat come up to me and say that John McCain gave the classiest speech he's ever heard. And without a doubt, Sen. McCain paid a great homage to Obama and effectively demonstrated that he understood the enormity of what had just occurred. Many I spoke to said it would be wise for President-elect Obama to reach out to Sen. McCain in the coming months.
So here we are, two years later after this all began, and the journey is complete. But as is the tradition in politics -- a new one begins tomorrow. What will the next four years bring? We don't know but millions across this country are going to bed tonight quite happy.
For more of the day's political reporting, check out NBC's First Read.
