Before I begin, I just want to congratulate my dear friend Tom Brokaw on doing a fantastic job as moderator during last night's debate. Of course I'm being a total homer so you would expect to hear that from me, but many students I spoke to last night said they liked how Brokaw kept the candidates moving from question to question, and how he never lost control of the debate. It is not an easy task to tell the future leader of the free world to wrap it up. Brokaw did it with ease and with a respect for the magnitude of the event.
I report to you from Winston-Salem, North Carolina, where I watched the debate with students from Wake Forest University last night. The university sits on a beautiful tree-filled campus with elegant buildings, a physical reminder that this is a true center of higher learning. I decided to travel to North Carolina because recent polls show the presidential race between Senator McCain and Senator Obama here is very close. No Democrat has won North Carolina since Jimmy Carter did in 1976, and I wanted to gauge the situation on the ground to see if North Carolina is actually up for grabs.
Republicans and Democrats at Wake Forest agree that North Carolina can be considered a swing state this year, and contribute its newfound status to a rise in registration among younger voters and African-Americans, as well as to the large number of transplants that have come from the Midwest and New England to live in the state for its favorable tax incentives. One young Republican I spoke with said she believes a lot of moderate Republicans here, especially in the suburbs around Charlotte and Raleigh, are going to vote for Obama. She attributed this to something she called "Bush guilt": moderate Republicans are disappointed with their '04 votes and want to vote for a change candidate. If this is the case, Obama has a very good shot of winning the state. Another student I spoke with said that, while Obama will keep it close, the high number of evangelical voters and the state's inherent conservatism will allow McCain to pull out a victory. Keep in mind that some polls in 2004 had Bush and Kerry running neck-and-neck, but Bush ended up winning the state by 12 points.
There are two interesting local races here that reflect the changing mood of the state. Senator Elizabeth Dole is in an absolute dogfight against State Senator Kay Hagan. In July, Dole had a comfortable 11-point lead according to a Rasmussen poll. Now, the Real Clear Politics average of state polls has Hagan up by a point. This race is as tight as can be. If North Carolinians are willing to vote out the well-known and respected Dole, who replaced the local legend Jesse Helms, it demonstrates how much change really is brewing in the state.
Another race to keep an eye on is in the 8th Congressional District, located in the southern part of the state. In 2006, incumbent Robin Hayes won this race against little-known schoolteacher Larry Kissell by only 329 votes. In the past, the rural 8th district has been fairly conservative, but it has been hit hard by the poor economy and has become more middle of the road. Kissell now leads by 8 points in the most recent Survey USA poll.
These two races show a state that is no longer decisively Republican but very much up for grabs. I am interested to see if "values voters" appear in high numbers, as they did in 2004, or if the economy dominates the day as many are predicting. With 27 days till Election Day, we'll see.
As for the debate, an older person sent me the following: "Both disappointed me. I want Churchill or FDR-- these times call for soaring rhetoric and calls to action. Too small for the times." I thought that was an interesting read on what the Drudge Report calls a boring debate. By now you have read every pundit's opinion of what transpired last night, so I won't bore you with too much more of the same. With our nation facing such challenging times, I expected each candidate to try to make a more personal plea, and explain why he would make the best steward of a country that is now in dire straits. It would have been the brilliant political move. But frankly, all we saw was more of the same: two candidates sticking to their crafted positions, unwilling to appear uncertain or overly romantic.
That's all from North Carolina. See you at Hofstra.
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