While many national polls are starting to show Barack Obama with a comfortable lead, like Jack White of the White Stripes so famously sang, sometimes "the truth don't make a noise." Though he leads in most polls on the economy, healthcare and energy, Senator Obama still trails on the commander-in-chief question.

The latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll shows that voters have more confidence in John McCain as a potential commander-in-chief by a slim 50 to 48 margin. Obama has closed the gap since early September, when the poll had him trailing John McCain by 11 points on the same question. But take a look at this interesting internal number, from the latest Harvard Institute of Politics poll, which is known as a credible survey of young voters. Among voters 18 to 24, McCain edges Obama on the commander-in-chief question by 3 points, even as he wins the demographic by 26 points.

These numbers tell us that people see John McCain over Barack Obama in the commander-in-chief role. While Obama leads on the economy, easily as important an issue, swing voters in swing states may think about whom they see as commander-in-chief when they pull the lever.

In my recent travels to swing states, to Pennsylvania, Virginia, North Carolina and Colorado, I've found a considerable number of folks who are still asking themselves whether or not Barack Obama is "presidential." Presidential in the sense that during a nationally traumatic event (there will be one in the next four years) they trust Barack Obama to lead the United States and deliver that primetime television address. Several factors play into this: experience, record and, perhaps, race.

Elections can be decided by the low-information voter. This voter does not watch MSNBC, would never read this article, and might even make up his or her mind this week. For this voter, image and familiarity are important. This voter will vote intuitively.

Has Obama closed the deal with this undecided voter, and sufficiently sold himself as a "commander-in-chief" figure? The polls show he has tightened the gap, but David Axelrod and David Plouffe have to be troubled by the fact that he is trailing John McCain on the question even among 18-24 year olds. A few Republicans have told me to 'look beyond the polls' when covering this election and to think extemporaneously about it. In this case, looking within the polls, at the commander-in-chief question, validates their point.

Many pundits are calling this race over - heck, even Pat Buchannan wrote an article called "Obama's First 100 Days." But if the pundits are wrong and John McCain ends up pulling this out, I believe it will be because swing voters don't see Barack Obama as someone who has the pedigree to be, well, you guessed it -- commander-in-chief.

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Two weeks to go in the most electrifying campaign in American history (well at least for those of us who have only been around for the last six of them), and many people have asked me the question: Who do you think is going to win? From what we see now, I believe the race will be decided in Colorado.

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Josh Holbreich is an NBC News producer who works on iCue. He was off duty and stumbled on a ticket to the final presidential debate.

Hey Joe.  Can I call ya Joe?  No, I'm not talking to you Joe Biden, Joe Lieberman or some mythological everyman who goes by the name of Joe Six-Pack.  I need to talk for a few minutes, right down to earth, with my good friend Joe "The Plumber" Wurzelbacher.

How the heck are ya?  I keep hearing different things about you - you're poor, you're rich, you want to own your own business but you can't afford it, you were for buying it before you were against it...

So Joe, I heard all of these things about you while I was watching the debate at a VIP reception for Hofstra University supporters at the University Club, a mere 300 yards or so away from the David S. Mack Sports and Exhibition Complex.  Now, Joe, you know I'm not a big-pocketed funder of higher education.  I work in news, and can barely fund my own lunch.  I was there because one of those guys couldn't make it, and the tickets made their way down to me.  See, the trickle-down principle made my American Dream come true!

Joe, if there's one thing I learned at Hofstra, it was how you and I -- or any Tom, Dick or Harry -- could throw one heck of a debate-watching party.

First, get your hands on $3 million.  That's how much Hofstra spent on the event.

Second, serve good food.  Nothing eases the pain of recession like a good old piece of prime rib.  And they had another chef rolling out fresh spicy tuna, eel and salmon sushi.  Joe, I couldn't choose between the beef and the fish.  Both choices were so tempting.  So I considered asking the caterer, Chef Jeff Loshinsky, what would happen if he became unable to serve one of the dishes, would he be happy just serving the other?

"Well," Jeff the Chef might have told me after admitting his preference for the sushi, "Americans have gotten to know the prime rib. They know that it's not fishy and can be found in restaurants all over America."  In the spirit of the event, he'd probably continue on to say that sushi is also a solid choice that definitely excites the base of many parties.

Third, get some real A-List people on the invite list. No joke, Joe, on my way into the University Hall, I ran smack into New York Governor David Paterson.  But before I could apologize, he disappeared, only to show up on one of the monitors right behind me.  Don't forget to bring these folks in the back way - we parked on one side of campus, and were then bussed to the other along a protester-free route.

While I was looking for a place to put down my stuff and revel like a fat cat, New York Senator Chuck Schumer walked on by.  Yeah, I know, he's no Hillary. She must have been at a better party.  And it was odd, Joe, that there were no high-ranking, currently serving Republicans around. I didn't think this was a partisan event.

Speaking of high-ranking elected women, as I was popping a stuffed mushroom into my mouth (note to Chef Jeff - this was the only culinary misstep of the evening), I spied House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on the other side of the room.  I tried to get her to stand for a picture, but doggone it if she didn't move at just the right second.  I tried and tried until it was clear her advance staff was worried, and paying more attention to me than to the Speaker.  In the end, she nearly knocked me over on her own quest for a bowl of pasta.

 But the best, Joe, was at a large, round table in the front of the room where Senator Alfonse D'Amato  - the man who brought so much pork to New York that he was known as Senator Pothole - was holding court.  It's been ten years since Chuck Schumer beat him in another expensive, ugly election, but as the two talked, it was clear that the old wounds hadn't healed, despite Chuck's efforts to "hug it out." Someday, maybe McCain and Obama will meet like this.

Before I go, Joe, I want to come back to that other Joe, Joe Six-Pack, for a minute, because there's a lot that's been put out there. I don't know if J6P's checked in with his 401k lately, but I think he's going to have to make some hard decisions regarding future spending on his special liquid interests. He might just have to downgrade to Joe Four-Pack, or worse - Joe Dry.

That was pretty much it, Joe.  You've heard about all the rest - the split screens, the smiles, the grimaces.  Nothing I saw back stage - or three football fields away from the stage - changes what's already been said by people way above my pay grade. There were cheers and jeers from both sides of the room as the night wore on, and the only thing I'm sure of is that in all that uproar, the syllable most spoken was 'Joe.'

One more thing, Joe, if you do become a small business owner - got any jobs?

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Before I begin, I just want to congratulate my dear friend Tom Brokaw on doing a fantastic job as moderator during last night's debate. Of course I'm being a total homer so you would expect to hear that from me, but many students I spoke to last night said they liked how Brokaw kept the candidates moving from question to question, and how he never lost control of the debate. It is not an easy task to tell the future leader of the free world to wrap it up. Brokaw did it with ease and with a respect for the magnitude of the event.

I report to you from Winston-Salem, North Carolina, where I watched the debate with students from Wake Forest University last night. The university sits on a beautiful tree-filled campus with elegant buildings, a physical reminder that this is a true center of higher learning.  I decided to travel to North Carolina because recent polls show the presidential race between Senator McCain and Senator Obama here is very close. No Democrat has won North Carolina since Jimmy Carter did in 1976, and I wanted to gauge the situation on the ground to see if North Carolina is actually up for grabs.

Republicans and Democrats at Wake Forest agree that North Carolina can be considered a swing state this year, and contribute its newfound status to a rise in registration among younger voters and African-Americans, as well as to the large number of transplants that have come from the Midwest and New England to live in the state for its favorable tax incentives. One young Republican I spoke with said she believes a lot of moderate Republicans here, especially in the suburbs around Charlotte and Raleigh, are going to vote for Obama. She attributed this to something she called "Bush guilt": moderate Republicans are disappointed with their '04 votes and want to vote for a change candidate. If this is the case, Obama has a very good shot of winning the state. Another student I spoke with said that, while Obama will keep it close, the high number of evangelical voters and the state's inherent conservatism will allow McCain to pull out a victory. Keep in mind that some polls in 2004 had Bush and Kerry running neck-and-neck, but Bush ended up winning the state by 12 points.

There are two interesting local races here that reflect the changing mood of the state. Senator Elizabeth Dole is in an absolute dogfight against State Senator Kay Hagan. In July, Dole had a comfortable 11-point lead according to a Rasmussen poll. Now, the Real Clear Politics average of state polls has Hagan up by a point. This race is as tight as can be. If North Carolinians are willing to vote out the well-known and respected Dole, who replaced the local legend Jesse Helms, it demonstrates how much change really is brewing in the state.

Another race to keep an eye on is in the 8th Congressional District, located in the southern part of the state. In 2006, incumbent Robin Hayes won this race against little-known schoolteacher Larry Kissell by only 329 votes. In the past, the rural 8th district has been fairly conservative, but it has been hit hard by the poor economy and has become more middle of the road. Kissell now leads by 8 points in the most recent Survey USA poll.

These two races show a state that is no longer decisively Republican but very much up for grabs. I am interested to see if "values voters" appear in high numbers, as they did in 2004, or if the economy dominates the day as many are predicting. With 27 days till Election Day, we'll see.

As for the debate, an older person sent me the following: "Both disappointed me. I want Churchill or FDR-- these times call for soaring rhetoric and calls to action. Too small for the times." I thought that was an interesting read on what the Drudge Report calls a boring debate. By now you have read every pundit's opinion of what transpired last night, so I won't bore you with too much more of the same. With our nation facing such challenging times, I expected each candidate to try to make a more personal plea, and explain why he would make the best steward of a country that is now in dire straits. It would have been the brilliant political move. But frankly, all we saw was more of the same: two candidates sticking to their crafted positions, unwilling to appear uncertain or overly romantic.

That's all from North Carolina. See you at Hofstra.

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From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carrie Dann

Obama At 264: A week after Obama's poll numbers spiked in battleground states and after McCain's campaign announced it was retreating from Michigan, Obama has opened up a nearly 100-point electoral-vote lead, according to NBC's new map. Obama now has a 264-174 advantage over McCain, up from his 212-174 edge last week. The changes are all in Obama's direction: We've moved Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin from Toss-up to Lean Obama. Also, every single Toss-up state is now a red state, and we are close to moving another red state -- Missouri -- to the Toss-up column. But let's remember: This is where the RACE IS RIGHT NOW, not where we expect the race to be in a month. And we move a state into lean when we believe there's significant evidence based on our reporting and a few of the public polls (we trust) that a candidate has a lead of five points or more.

*** The Path To Winning: To reach 270, Obama has to hold on to the Kerry map -- winning New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin -- and pick up just one more state other than Nevada (which would get him to 269 and send the election to the House). Here's McCain's challenge, per our map: If he's unable to turn a blue state red, then he has to win EVERY SINGLE Toss-up to get to 270. It's doable, but it's also the poker equivalent of drawing an inside straight. Also, not only does McCain share Vietnam veteran status with the last two Democratic nominees for president (Gore and Kerry); he also shares the need for a similar Electoral College strategy. At this point in the campaign in both 2000 and 2004, Gore and Kerry seemed to have limited room to maneuver in the states. Gore pulled out of Ohio (about this time) to focus on Florida, and Kerry pulled out of Missouri to focus on Ohio. McCain's pullout of Michigan has the same feel to it -- meaning it's not a bad strategy given the circumstances. The fact is, like Gore and Kerry, McCain's got a narrow path to 270, which explains why Sarah Palin was in Omaha yesterday and why there is more money being thrown into Maine. McCain's campaign is not playing for a big win, just any win. And while both Kerry and Gore did end up losing, it was VERY close. When the environment is against you, it's not a bad strategy.

*** Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania: If there is one blue state the McCain campaign may never give up on, it's the Keystone State. Of all the Kerry blue states, it's the most competitive -- even right now at a time that appears to be Obama's high-water mark. Of the remaining blue states in play, Pennsylvania may be the most culturally sensitive and may explain why the McCain folks want to shift the debate a bit to character (see below). Shifting the campaign to character isn't about changing the national narrative; it's about keeping the undecided column larger in Pennsylvania. Now, the character strategy could backfire in a Florida or even a Nevada or Colorado. But Pennsylvania, by the numbers, is worth it to McCain. Speaking of state-by-state strategies, anyone remember the last time Obama was in Ohio?

Check out more of the day's political reporting on First Read.

And see NBC political director Chuck Todd's take on the electoral map below.

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All you young folks who like some great 80's rock remember the famed Guns N' Roses classic "Sweet Child O' Mine" in which Axl Rose asks: "Where do we go? Where do we go now?" A lot of young Americans are asking the same thing as the economy continues to falter and Wall Street is in its tightest bind since we were in diapers, in October of 1987. On Monday, Congress refused to foot the bailout bills, so the question is: where do we go now?

Martin Wolf says in The Financial Times that knowledge is not the problem."We know how to recapitalise and restructure damaged financial systems. The problem is lack of will. Government must start to show it is in control of events. In the twilight of a failed US administration, that may seem far too much to ask. Winston Churchill, Roosevelt's partner, said: "The United States invariably does the right thing, after having exhausted every other alternative." The alternatives are now exhausted. It is time for politicians to do the right thing."

What Wolf essentially is saying is that Congress needs to go back to the drawing board and pass a bill that will rescue the American economy. This is no small task. Yet after reading countless articles for and against the bailout, it seem clear that the government has to do something.

So how does all of this affect young people?

If you are a recent graduate, fresh out of college, it is going to be even more difficult to find a job. An unemployed friend of mine who graduated from a top university near the top of his class told me, "I've had two employers tell me that last year I would have been fine, but this is the worst job market in years." I asked Richard Tresch, an esteemed economics professor at BC, what awaits kids in the job market. He told me, "With consolidation and bankruptcy in the financial industry, there will almost certainly be fewer jobs available there. Also, what jobs remain will probably not come with the fairly large bonuses that young workers were receiving."

The bad economy is not only affecting young people trying to get into the business world. It has and will hit hiring for all types of jobs. Small businesses will suffer because they can't secure credit and so cannot grow. Non-profits and social programs will not have as much funding because there will be less capital available to them and their budgets will be down. If you have a job lined up for after graduation, be thankful. These are dire times for young graduates.

How will the bad economy affect student loans?

About six months ago, many private lenders stopped their government-backed student loan programs because of the credit crunch brought on by the housing crisis. Many also stopped loaning money to students privately, without the government's backing. With the current economic collapse, many students will only be able to turn to the government for student loans.

I asked Georgetown finance professor Sandeep Dahiya what would happen to student loans if the economy gets so bad that the government is unable to assist. He told me, "That is a good question. The government is high profile enough that at this point that probably would not happen." But he went on to say, "I do not see private lenders coming back into the student loan market." This is fairly significant because it cuts down on the number of options students have in acquiring a loan. It's not just a slogan, it's common sense that "when banks compete, you win." Student loans vary from college to college. Schools have different agreements with different lenders. That being said, if you need to take out a student loan in the next few weeks, definitely read all of the fine print to see what is the best government-backed deal you can find.

These are not easy times for anybody but young people have it especially hard. If you are graduating from college this May, start to look for a job now. Call your local congressman or senator and see what they are doing about student loans. Look at your loan to make sure it is still viable for next semester.

While the current situation certainly is brutal, I'd like to end on a somewhat optimistic note. I put in a call to Mr. Chris Quick, formerly of the brokerage firm Quick & Reilly, who now works for Bank of America. I asked him what advice he would have for young people in today's market. He responded, "We've been through this before in 1987, when the market fell 22% and values got real cheap. With stock prices so low, this is a chance where you don't need a lot of money to make a good return in the long run. Young people have the opportunity to be really involved in the market because of the Internet. Do your research and invest a few hundred dollars in companies that are going to be around for an extended period of time. In 10 to 15 years, you could make a great return on your investment."

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